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During the policy landing period, the market may become a structural market, which is expected to further benefit the performance of high-interest stocks. On December 13, the Standard & Poor's dividend ETF(562060) closed down by 1.93%, with a turnover of 35.7287 million yuan. Puyin International pointed out that next year, before the two sessions next year, it will enter the policy landing period, and more detailed policies will be gradually implemented. The superimposed overseas uncertainty may increase with Trump's coming to power, so we expect the market to present a structural market. Based on the profit growth rate, capital stock, liquidity and market sentiment, the overall performance of A shares may be more stable than that of overseas Chinese shares. Investment trading strategy suggests both offensive and defensive. When the market sentiment improves and the stock index rebounds, it is expected that the high beta sector, such as non-bank finance, optional and mandatory consumption, real estate and other sectors and individual stocks may be more elastic. When the market sentiment is low and the stock index fluctuates downward, funds may prefer more defensive sectors, such as telecommunications services. There are many high-quality and high-interest stocks in the defensive sector. There is still room for the Bank of China to cut interest rates further next year, which is expected to further benefit the performance of high-interest stocks.It is reported that Canada is considering imposing export taxes on commodities such as uranium and oil to counter Trump's tariff threat. Canada is studying the imposition of export taxes on major commodities exported to the United States, including uranium, oil and potash, in the case that Trump fulfills the comprehensive tariff threat. Officials familiar with the internal discussions of Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau's government said that the export tax would be Canada's last resort. According to people familiar with the matter, retaliatory tariffs on goods made in the United States and export controls on some Canadian products are more likely to come first. However, these officials said that if Trump decides to launch a full-scale trade war, the commodity export tax is a practical option, which will push up the costs of American consumers, farmers and enterprises. They said that the Trudeau government may also propose to expand its export control power in the latest report on the country's financial and economic situation scheduled to be released on Monday. It is reported that Canada is currently the largest external oil supplier in the United States. Some refineries rely on cheaper Canadian heavy crude oil, and there are few other options. The impact of rising costs is particularly severe in the Midwest of the United States, where nearly half of the crude oil used by fuel producers to produce gasoline and diesel comes from Canada.Bank of China Securities Guan Tao: As long as the economy is stable and risks are prevented, the spring of China's capital market can be expected. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Guan Tao, global chief economist of Bank of China Securities, said that the meeting continued the policy thinking since the end of September and emphasized the need to implement more active and promising macro policies. Among them, implementing a more active fiscal policy is an important point to strengthen unconventional countercyclical adjustment. I believe that as long as the economy is stable and risks are prevented, the spring of China's capital market can be expected.

Barclays: The Central Economic Work Conference released more signals of policy support, which was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The Barclays research team said that the Central Economic Work Conference provided more forward-looking guidance and released more policy support signals. Barclays said that on the whole, the meeting made it clear that "stable economic growth should be maintained next year" and emphasized "implementing more active macro policies" and "vigorously boosting consumption". The agency believes that regulators are more likely to introduce policies in a gradual manner. At the same time, when measuring the rhythm, scale and composition of the next round of measures, we should focus on the development and changes of real estate and stock market. Barclays expects that a more specific financial plan will be announced in March next year. In terms of monetary policy, the meeting proposed to implement a "moderately loose monetary policy". Barclays believes that this change in wording and position has released a positive signal, especially considering the current environment, it is expected that the central bank may cut interest rates significantly in the future. (SSE)The organization looks forward to the semiconductor industry in 2025: the AI ​ ​ replacement tide leads the growth, and the semiconductor ETF(512480) may usher in new development opportunities. On December 13, the semiconductor ETF(512480) closed down by 1.38%, with a turnover of 1.671 billion yuan. The constituent stocks are mixed, and Zhaoyi Innovation leads the rise. In terms of decline, SMIC led the decline. CICC said that after the boom in 2024, it is expected that the inventory of the semiconductor industry will stabilize and the relationship between supply and demand will be more balanced in 2025. With the gradual landing of AI cloud and end demand, domestic semiconductor elements will usher in new development opportunities. In addition, the AI-changing tide has a pulling effect on the downstream demand of the semiconductor design sector, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the semiconductor design sector in 2025 and inject new vitality into the industry.Baiyun Airport: The passenger throughput in the first November increased by 21.16% year-on-year. Baiyun Airport (600004) released the November production and operation data express on the evening of December 13th, and Baiyun Airport took 43,637 flights (sorties) in November, up by 12.94% year-on-year. Passenger throughput was 6,504,400 person-times, up by 19.94% year-on-year; The cargo and mail throughput was 212,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. Baiyun Airport took off and landed 465,983 sorties from January to November, up 12.05% year-on-year; The passenger throughput was 69.6674 million person-times, up by 21.16% year-on-year; The cargo and mail throughput was 2,161,300 tons, up 18.12% year-on-year.

Some short-term inter-bank bonds performed brilliantly. The yield of 2-year active bonds "21 interest-bearing bonds 02" went down 5bp to reach 1.1%, which was 11bp upside down from the current 1-year active bonds "24 discount bonds 67" yield of 1.21%.Goldman Sachs lowered the UK's GDP growth forecast for 2024 from the previous 1.2% to 1.0%.Citigroup: The target price of Illumina is lowered from $190 to $165, and the rating is lowered from "buy" to "neutral".